Oscars on Ice

The 79th annual Academy Awards take place tonight, and I have to imagine that the weather in sunny California will be better than the ice and snow storms we have been experiencing. There has been a brief respite in the crap falling from the sky, but more is expected later today. As the Oscars are like a secondary holiday in my life, I'll try not to let the weather ruin my sunshine-y mood.

With that said, I'm long overdue in providing my thoughts on who will take home Oscar tonight. Let's see how close I come:

Actor in a Leading Role
Leonardo DiCaprio -- Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling -- Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole -- Venus
Will Smith -- The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker -- The Last King of Scotland

MoC's Pick: Forest Whitaker (the Academy has historically shown thir love of actors who portray real life people/situations well)

Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Arkin -- Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley -- Little Children
Djimon Hounsou -- Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy -- Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg -- The Departed

MoC's Pick: Eddie Murphy (although it would be interesting to see Jackie Earle Haley win and revitalize his "I've fallen off the face of the Earth after "Bad News Bears" and now here I am" career)

Actress in a Leading Role
Penelope Cruz -- Volver
Judi Dench -- Notes ona Scandal
Helen Mirren -- The Queen
Meryl Streep -- The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet -- Little Children

MoC's Pick: Thought they're all fabulous, I'm going with Helen because I think she'll get it (though I would truly adore it if there was an upset and Streep stripped her of it).

Actress in a Supporting Role
Adriana Barraza -- Babel
Cate Blanchett -- Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin -- Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson -- Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi -- Babel

MoC's Pick: Jennifer Hudson (go, Chicago connection!), even though they were all fantastic.

Animated Feature Film
Cars
Happy Feet
Monster House

MoC's Pick: Cars (hey, it's not about who I want to win; it's about who I think will win)

Art Direction
Dreamgirls
The Good Shepherd
Pan's Labyrinth
Pirates of the Caribbean
The Prestige

MoC's Pick: Pan's Labyrinth

Cinematography
The Black Dahlia
Children of Men
The Illusionist
Pan's Labyrinth
The Prestige

MoC's Pick: Children of Men

Costume Design
Curse of the Golden Flower
The Devils Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Marie Antoinette
The Queen

MoC's Pick: Since I have no idea, I'm going with Devil, if only because those clothes were characters themselves. Fab!

Directing
Babel
The Departed
Letters from Iwo Jima
The Queen
United 93

MoC's Pick: The Departed

Documentary Feature
Deliver Us From Evil
An Inconvenient Truth
Iraq in Fragments
Jesus Camp
My Country, My Country

MoC's Pick: An Inconvenient Truth (not because I like Gore, but because of his recognition for Nobel Prize for this work)

Documentary Short
The Blood of Yingzhou District
Recycled Life
Rehearsing a Dream
Two Hands

MoC's Pick: [pure guess] The Blood of Yingzhou District

Film Editing
Babel
Blood Diamond
Children of Men
The Departed
United 93

MoC's Pick: United 93

Foreign Language Film
After the Wedding
Days of Glory
The Lives of Others
Pan's Labyrinth
Water

MoC's Pick: Pan's Labyrinth

Makeup
Apocalypto
Click
Pan's Labyrinth

MoC's Pick: Pan's Labyrinth

Music (Score)
Babel
The Good German
Notes on a Scandal
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen

MoC's Pick: The Queen

Music (Song)
An Inconvenient Truth
Dreamgirls (thrice)
Cars

MoC's Pick: One of the Dreamgirls one...I think the one with "listen" or "love" in the title.

Best Picture
Babel
The Departed
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

MoC's Pick: This is really hard. Babel was a bit too "Crash"-esque, and I don't think the Academy will go for that again. The Queen was good, but was it that good? I would really love to see the indy Little Miss Sunshine squeak it out. I really would. And it'd make for a little-film-that-could story.

Short Film (animated)
The Danish Poet
Lifted
The Little Matchgirl
Maestro
No Time for Nuts

MoC's Pick: The Little Matchgirl (because what do I know about this category?)

Short Film (Live Action)
Binta and the Great Idea
Eramos Pocos
Helmer & Son
The Saviour
West Bank Story

MoC's Pick: West Bank Story

Sound Editing
Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Flags of Our Fathers
Letters from Iwo Jima
Pirates of the Caribbean

MoC's Pick: Pirates of the Caribbean

Sound Mixing
Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
Pirates of the Caribbean

MoC's Pick: Pirates of the Caribbean

Visual Effects
Pirates of the Caribbean
Poseidon
Superman Returns

MoC's Pick: Pirates of the Caribbean

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Borat
Children of Men
The Departed
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal

MoC's Pick: The Departed

Writing (Original Screenplay)
Babel
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen

MoC's Pick: The Queen

Update to follow.
Update: 27 February -- I never claimed to be psychic, evidence of which can be found in my (bad) picks.